I like the fact that we slice the time in years, months, days and hours, and periodically stop and check what happened. It seems that we then try to look ahead in a more positive way. I always consider myself privileged to be able to apply “checks and balances” and try to make sense of the things.
This year started full of high expectations. A new government that started under the auspices of the war against criminality and corruption, and of a strong economic recovery. The figure of a strong leader, a man without the vices and ideological minuses of his predecessors, permeated the collective thought and maybe made us as a nation forget the hindrances usually placed by politics.
From the criminality point of view, a huge success, with average level of crimes having decreased by some 22%. This achievement is (in my humble opinion) due to certain specific measures taken by Justice Minister Sergio Moro in the first days of his term, such as isolating the drug lords in maximum security penitentiaries and enforcing combat of smaller crimes with the same vigor of the larger ones. Also the deployment of national security forces whenever necessary and in whichever parte of the country necessary, in a timely manner, helped a lot to show to the criminals that Federal Government is serious about curbing crime.
In the fight against corruption, our major defeats, in the beginning inflicted by a still majorly “tainted” congress, mainly the lower chamber, but in the recent months by the Executive itself, with nonsensical measures taken by the president himself without the consent of his Justice Minister. The support of allegedly corrupt Supreme Court justices to the president (and vice versa) raised suspicions of protection for the president`s “son number one”, apparently involved in a scandal of corruption. This has made the president accept some laws passed by Congress that no one would believe he would, in the campaign. Bolsonaro`s image is definitely smeared by this fact alone!
In the economy we had a recalcitrant beginning, with a much better year end. Projections for the GDP in the end of 2018 were of some 2.2% to 3%. The delay in approving the much needed economic measures, such as the reform of the retirement system (creation of minimum age, equaling the government employees to the ones in the public sector, in terms of benefits, etc) created a serious delay in the recovery of the economy. By the mid 2019 no one was certain whether the reform would pass in the Houses or the size of what came from it. A famous economist bet against me that it would not be over R$ 500 Billion, while I bet in a total R$ 1 trillion (over a period of 10 years). At the end, I “won more than lost”, with an economy of R$ 840 Billion, plus the effects of the changes in the pension system of the military and of the States and Counties public servants. After all was said and done, total savings in 10 years can reach R$ 1.5 trillion, an appreciable effort. Mr. Paulo Guedes was the national hero this year. A level head with clear goals, the man endured a lot from politicians. Politicians can be annoying in their ability to pretend to ignore some basic economic principles. This was clearly a plus for Mr. Guedes, with his proverbial ability to lecture his public. This last week a panel of 7 journalists of Globo TV Network had to endure Mr. Guedes` “class” with shut mouths, for the lack of arguments against his excepcional conduction of the economy, despite the landmines planted both by opposition and (mainly, I`d say) government officials in his plans to boost growth. Mr. Guedes was certainly the highest point in a somehow controversial government.
Then, the most visible side (from an international point of view) of Mr. Bolsonaro’s administration: environment. From the (nonsensical) outcry of the international press on the fires on the Amazon to Mr. Bolsonaro’s call of Greta Thunberg as “Pirralha!” (Brat!), the year was one of clear and huge misunderstandings (some journalists were incredulous by the number of “giraffes” killed in the fires in the region!). Mr. Bolsonaro’s administration was demonized as “forest arsonists” and clearly “anti-climate” policies. I would daresay this is not true. It is a fact that this administration does not count with the support of the major NGOs in the Amazon region, and this does not help in the creation of good press abroad for him. It is also a fact that he plans to develop the region, mainly regarding its mining potential. Oh, if mining was as big a problem as is the illegal occupation of areas for wood extractions (illegal) and its transformation in pastures. That is the point, and is happening as always had. It does not significantly depend on the actions of this or that government. The curves of increase and decrease in deforestation and fires in the area are much more subject to the economic growth than anything else. The largest deforestation years were 2001 (under Fernando Henrique Cardoso`s administration) and 2004 (Lula), and the lowest was 2012 (Dilma). There is no apparent link to specific policies applied this or that year, but fact is that from a peak of 29 thousand Km², the deforestation in 2019 was of 9.5 thousand km².
The failure of this government to communicate its achievements is partially due to Mr. Bolsonaro’s rhetoric against the “Bad Press”, à lá Mr. Trump. This, together with specific measures that cut the already decreasing revenues of the traditional media, such as abolishing the need of public companies to publish its Financial Statements in papers of large circulation, and the reduction in government publicity, created a tremendous bad will in the redactions.
All in all, this has been a great year, but a year that has not been fairly appraised, neither by Bolsonaro`s supporters nor his detractors. It will have to be adequately analyzed by historians, some time in the future, if we still count on fair-minded historians by then.
